B
Evidence Grade B
Graded
accuracy verified by the review judge
Safe to Cite
Dated
13%
13% -- false positive rate for Thompson Sampling bandit tests (2021)
Analyzing Thompson Sampling bandit test results with a standard statistical test can increase the false positive rate up to 13%.
- Applies when results are analyzed using a standard statistical test that assumes equal groups
- Represents the upper bound ('as high as 13%')
Attribution:
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Lighthouse Research Team
Last verified:
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Source verified
Evidence graded
Value
13%
Unit
Percentage
Data Vintage
2021
Entity
Evidence Quality
B
Strong, reliable evidence
Sourced from a well-regarded research firm or industry leader with transparent methodology and a reasonably large sample.
Single source - not yet corroborated
Score breakdown
Extraction
75
Source Trust
60
Citation Chain
20
Independence
30
Methodology
45
Freshness
95
Source
Academic paper on bandit data analysis (2021)
Primary
Tier B
https://kirro.io/multi-armed-bandit-testing ↗
Source Article
Multi-armed bandit testing explained (decision framework)
A multi-armed bandit is an algorithm that automatically sends more traffic to whichever version of your page is winning. Instead of splitting visitors 50/50 and waiting weeks for a result, the algorithm learns as it goes. It shifts traffic toward the better performer in real time.
Sounds like a no-b…
Original Research
Academic paper on bandit data analysis (2021)
· Original study ↗
Methodology
From a 2021 academic paper on bandit data analysis
Methodology documented
Segmentation
Industrymarketing
Cite this stat
Plain Text
Thompson Sampling bandit tests: 13% false positive rate. Source: Academic paper on bandit data analysis (2021) (2021). Via Lighthouse Intelligence -- https://lighthousedata.io/data/bandit-thompson-sampling-false-positive-rate
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<blockquote cite="https://lighthousedata.io/data/bandit-thompson-sampling-false-positive-rate" style="border-left:3px solid #2563eb;padding:12px 16px;margin:16px 0;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;background:#f0f4ff;"><strong>13%</strong> -- false positive rate for Thompson Sampling bandit tests<br><small>Source: Academic paper on bandit data analysis (2021) (2021) · <a href="https://lighthousedata.io/data/bandit-thompson-sampling-false-positive-rate" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighthouse Intelligence</a></small></blockquote>
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