B
Evidence Grade B
Graded
accuracy verified by the review judge
Safe to Cite
Recent
0.04x
0.04x -- forecasted organic ctr position 1 for Counterfactual forecast for position #1 CTR on informational keywords without AI Overviews, based on normal traffic trends (2025-03)
Ahrefs forecasted that expected average CTR for position #1 on informational keywords would have been 0.040 (4.0%) in 2025 without AI Overviews.
- Counterfactual projection based on historical trends absent AI Overviews
Attribution:
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Lighthouse Research Team
Last verified:
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Source verified
Evidence graded
Value
0.04x
Unit
Ratio
Data Vintage
2025-03
Entity
Sample Size
300,000
Evidence Quality
B
Strong, reliable evidence
Sourced from a well-regarded research firm or industry leader with transparent methodology and a reasonably large sample.
Single source - not yet corroborated
Score breakdown
Extraction
50
Source Trust
60
Citation Chain
20
Independence
30
Methodology
45
Freshness
95
Source
Ahrefs
Primary
Tier C
https://foxandowlmarketing.com/google-ai-overviews-and-click-through-rates/ ↗
Source Article
Google's AI Overviews: What 300,000 Keywords Reveal About Your SEO Clicks
AI Overview: A New Era of Search Results
Google has been steadily introducing AI-generated summaries, or AI Overviews, at the top of many search results. These summaries are meant to quickly answer a user’s question by pulling together snippets of information from multiple sources.
Google CEO Sundar…
Original Research
Ahrefs
· Original study ↗
Methodology
Ahrefs forecast of expected 2025 CTR absent AI Overviews, used as baseline to isolate the AI Overview effect
Methodology documented
Segmentation
Industrymarketing
Cite this stat
Plain Text
Counterfactual forecast for position #1 CTR on informational keywords without AI Overviews, based on normal traffic trends: 0.04x forecasted organic ctr position 1. Source: Ahrefs (2025-03). Via Lighthouse Intelligence -- https://lighthousedata.io/data/forecast-ctr-position1-no-ai-overviews-2025
HTML Embed
<blockquote cite="https://lighthousedata.io/data/forecast-ctr-position1-no-ai-overviews-2025" style="border-left:3px solid #2563eb;padding:12px 16px;margin:16px 0;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;background:#f0f4ff;"><strong>0.04x</strong> -- forecasted organic ctr position 1 for Counterfactual forecast for position #1 CTR on informational keywords without AI Overviews, based on normal traffic trends<br><small>Source: Ahrefs (2025-03) · <a href="https://lighthousedata.io/data/forecast-ctr-position1-no-ai-overviews-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighthouse Intelligence</a></small></blockquote>
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