B
Evidence Grade B
Graded
accuracy verified by the review judge
Safe to Cite
Current
60%
60% -- probability of selling to existing customer for existing customers vs new prospects (2026)
The probability of selling to an existing customer is 60-70%.
- Reported as a range (60-70%) compared to 5-20% for new prospects
Attribution:
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Lighthouse Research Team
Last verified:
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Source verified
Evidence graded
Value
60%
Unit
Percentage
Data Vintage
2026
Entity
Evidence Quality
B
Strong, reliable evidence
Sourced from a well-regarded research firm or industry leader with transparent methodology and a reasonably large sample.
Single source - not yet corroborated
Score breakdown
Extraction
75
Source Trust
60
Citation Chain
20
Independence
30
Methodology
45
Freshness
95
Source
Marketing Metrics (Paul Farris et al.)
Primary
Tier B
https://loyally.ai/blog/posts/how-apple-wallet-loyalty-cards-work-small-businesses ↗
Source Article
How Apple Wallet loyalty cards work for local shops — Loyally.ai
Your regular customers are already carrying their loyalty card. It's on their phone, sitting right next to their boarding passes and credit cards in Apple Wallet. They don't need to download anything, create an account, or remember to bring a physical card. When they walk into your shop, they just t…
Original Research
Marketing Metrics (Paul Farris et al.)
· Original study ↗
Methodology
Range 60-70%; midpoint used. Cited from Marketing Metrics (Paul Farris et al.)
Methodology documented
Segmentation
Industrymarketing
Cite this stat
Plain Text
existing customers vs new prospects: 60% probability of selling to existing customer. Source: Marketing Metrics (Paul Farris et al.) (2026). Via Lighthouse Intelligence -- https://lighthousedata.io/data/existing-customer-sale-probability
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<blockquote cite="https://lighthousedata.io/data/existing-customer-sale-probability" style="border-left:3px solid #2563eb;padding:12px 16px;margin:16px 0;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;background:#f0f4ff;"><strong>60%</strong> -- probability of selling to existing customer for existing customers vs new prospects<br><small>Source: Marketing Metrics (Paul Farris et al.) (2026) · <a href="https://lighthousedata.io/data/existing-customer-sale-probability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighthouse Intelligence</a></small></blockquote>
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