B
Evidence Grade B
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Recent
2.18%
2.18% -- lead to closed won conversion rate for AI-native SaaS companies (<$100M ARR) (2025)
Within the <$100M ARR segment, AI-native SaaS companies have a lead-to-closed-won conversion rate of 2.18% based on ICONIQ's State of Software 2025 report.
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Lighthouse Research Team
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Evidence graded
Value
2.18%
Unit
Percentage
Data Vintage
2025
Entity
Evidence Quality
B
Strong, reliable evidence
Sourced from a well-regarded research firm or industry leader with transparent methodology and a reasonably large sample.
Single source - not yet corroborated
Score breakdown
Extraction
75
Source Trust
60
Citation Chain
20
Independence
30
Methodology
45
Freshness
95
Source
ICONIQ
Primary
Tier B
https://topline.beehiiv.com/p/tech-is-on-the-brink-of-a-gross-retention-apocalypse-a-customer-succes… ↗
Source Article
Tech is on the Brink of a Gross Retention Apocalypse & a Customer Success Renaissance
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: ARR traction is a major red herring in the world of AI-native startups.
Jamin Ball’s 2024 Clouded Judgment piece on the ERR (experimental runrate revenue) vs. ARR conundrum was something of a shot heard round the world for me. His argument about experimenta…
Original Research
ICONIQ
· Original study ↗
Methodology
Product of New Lead > Closed Won funnel metrics from ICONIQ State of Software 2025
Methodology documented
Segmentation
Industrymarketing
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Plain Text
AI-native SaaS companies (<$100M ARR): 2.18% lead to closed won conversion rate. Source: ICONIQ (2025). Via Lighthouse Intelligence -- https://lighthousedata.io/data/ai-native-closed-won-rate-iconiq-2025
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<blockquote cite="https://lighthousedata.io/data/ai-native-closed-won-rate-iconiq-2025" style="border-left:3px solid #2563eb;padding:12px 16px;margin:16px 0;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;background:#f0f4ff;"><strong>2.18%</strong> -- lead to closed won conversion rate for AI-native SaaS companies (<$100M ARR)<br><small>Source: ICONIQ (2025) · <a href="https://lighthousedata.io/data/ai-native-closed-won-rate-iconiq-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighthouse Intelligence</a></small></blockquote>
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