B
Evidence Grade B
Graded
under review
Safe to Cite
Recent
27%
27% -- vote share for Reform UK (2025)
Attribution:
View source
Lighthouse Research Team
Last verified:
·
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Source verified
Evidence graded
Value
27%
Unit
Percentage
Data Vintage
2025
Entity
Sample Size
13,000
Evidence Quality
B
Strong, reliable evidence
Sourced from a well-regarded research firm or industry leader with transparent methodology and a reasonably large sample.
Single source - not yet corroborated
Score breakdown
Extraction
95
Source Trust
60
Citation Chain
20
Independence
30
Methodology
45
Freshness
95
Source
YouGov
Primary
Tier A
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53059-yougov-mrp-shows-a-reform-uk-government-a-near-certaint… ↗
Source Article
YouGov MRP shows a Reform UK government a near-certainty if an election were held tomorrow
Second YouGov MRP model since the 2024 election projects Reform UK would win 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority
YouGov’s second MRP since the 2024 general election shows Reform UK within touching distance of winning a parliamentary majority. Nonetheless, their seat total in a hypothetical electi…
Original Research
YouGov
· Original study ↗
Methodology
YouGov’s industry-leading MRP model run on a sample of 13,000 voters.
Segmentation
Industrymarketing
Cite this stat
Plain Text
Reform UK: 27% vote share. Source: YouGov (2025). Via Lighthouse Intelligence -- https://lighthousedata.io/data/yougov-mrp-reform-uk-vote-share-2025
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<blockquote cite="https://lighthousedata.io/data/yougov-mrp-reform-uk-vote-share-2025" style="border-left:3px solid #2563eb;padding:12px 16px;margin:16px 0;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;background:#f0f4ff;"><strong>27%</strong> -- vote share for Reform UK<br><small>Source: YouGov (2025) · <a href="https://lighthousedata.io/data/yougov-mrp-reform-uk-vote-share-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighthouse Intelligence</a></small></blockquote>
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