B
Evidence Grade B
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Recent
77%
77% -- false confident result rate for A/B tests with zero real difference under continuous peeking (2025)
In traditional A/B test simulations with zero real difference between variants, 77% showed a confident result when checked repeatedly.
- Refers to traditional (frequentist) A/B testing simulations subjected to peeking
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Lighthouse Research Team
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Evidence graded
Value
77%
Unit
Percentage
Data Vintage
2025
Entity
Evidence Quality
B
Strong, reliable evidence
Sourced from a well-regarded research firm or industry leader with transparent methodology and a reasonably large sample.
Single source - not yet corroborated
Score breakdown
Extraction
75
Source Trust
60
Citation Chain
20
Independence
30
Methodology
45
Freshness
95
Source
University of British Columbia
Primary
Tier B
https://kirro.io/bayesian-ab-testing ↗
Source Article
Bayesian A/B Testing: When It Helps, When It Is Overkill
Bayesian A/B testing measures which version of a page works better using a probability that updates as data comes in. Instead of waiting for some magic number of visitors, you get a running answer: “Version B has an 89% chance of getting more signups.”
That’s it. No statistics degree required.
Peopl…
Original Research
University of British Columbia
· Original study ↗
Methodology
Simulation study from University of British Columbia, cited by Kirro
Methodology documented
Segmentation
Industrymarketing
Cite this stat
Plain Text
A/B tests with zero real difference under continuous peeking: 77% false confident result rate. Source: University of British Columbia (2025). Via Lighthouse Intelligence -- https://lighthousedata.io/data/peeking-confident-results-no-difference-77
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<blockquote cite="https://lighthousedata.io/data/peeking-confident-results-no-difference-77" style="border-left:3px solid #2563eb;padding:12px 16px;margin:16px 0;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;background:#f0f4ff;"><strong>77%</strong> -- false confident result rate for A/B tests with zero real difference under continuous peeking<br><small>Source: University of British Columbia (2025) · <a href="https://lighthousedata.io/data/peeking-confident-results-no-difference-77" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighthouse Intelligence</a></small></blockquote>
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