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89%

89% -- false positive rate of ab test winners for published A/B test winners (2025)

Name: False Positive Rate Of Ab Test Winners Statistics
Creator: Lighthouse Intelligence
Published: 2026-10-04

2025 · CXL Institute

89% of published A/B test winners declared at 95% statistical significance reversed or evaporated after 90 days upon re-testing.

Applies to low-power testing / tests below the 1,000-view-per-variant threshold

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Attribution: CXL Institute View source

Lighthouse Research Team

Last verified: 2026-10-04 · How we verify data →

Source verified Evidence graded

Value

89%

Unit

Percentage

Data Vintage

2025

Entity

published A/B test winners

Evidence Quality

Strong, reliable evidence

Sourced from a well-regarded research firm or industry leader with transparent methodology and a reasonably large sample.

61/100 confidence

Single source - not yet corroborated

Score breakdown

Extraction

Source Trust

Citation Chain

Independence

Methodology

Freshness

Source

CXL Institute Primary Tier C

https://www.gogochimp.com/blog/ab-testing-foundations-math-history-message-match ↗

Confidence: 48/100 Vintage: 2025 Channel: Deep Crawl

Source Article

A/B Testing Foundations: Math, History & Message Match

A/B Testing Foundations: The Math, the History, and Message Match A/B Testing A/B testing needs 95% statistical confidence AND 1,000+ views per variant. Below that threshold, 89% of published 'winners' at 95% significance evaporate at 90 days on re-test (CXL Institute, 2025). This piece covers the m…

Original Research

CXL Institute · Original study ↗

Methodology

CXL Institute re-testing research, cited by GoGoChimp

Methodology documented

Segmentation

IndustryB2B Company SizeAll sizes RoleAll marketers Channelmulti-channel

Cite this stat

Plain Text

published A/B test winners: 89% false positive rate of ab test winners. Source: CXL Institute (2025). Via Lighthouse Intelligence -- https://lighthousedata.io/data/ab-test-winners-false-positive-retest-2025

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<blockquote cite="https://lighthousedata.io/data/ab-test-winners-false-positive-retest-2025" style="border-left:3px solid #2563eb;padding:12px 16px;margin:16px 0;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;background:#f0f4ff;"><strong>89%</strong> -- false positive rate of ab test winners for published A/B test winners<br><small>Source: CXL Institute (2025) · <a href="https://lighthousedata.io/data/ab-test-winners-false-positive-retest-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighthouse Intelligence</a></small></blockquote>

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